Limit Hold'em Quiz #34--A Hand-Reading Exercise

[Matt]

You are in middle position with 6:hearts:6:clubs:. The UTG player calls, the next player raises, and the third player calls. You call, as do the cutoff and the button. The blinds fold and the UTG limper calls. The pot contains 13.5 small bets. The flop comes 6:diamonds: 4:diamonds: A:clubs:. The preflop raiser bets, the next player raises, and you three-bet. The button, a tight-aggressive player, calls. The bettor and raiser just call. What is the button most likely to hold?

EDIT: Option #2 should be "Pocket Fours" instead of "Pocket Twos." I don't know how to fix this. If you think your opponent has bottom set, just pretend that the second option is "Pocket Fours." Please forgive my retardation.

[Nima]

He doesnt have AA, he would have raised with them preflop.

he is a tight aggressive player, so he would have capped it with a set, or perhaps with AJ of Diamonds, so i guess the KQ sounds reasonable.

But I think he would play AJ of diamonds the same way as he wants more money on his strong hand (on the other hand, i think its a mistake to that though, since in a big pot you just wana win it not make it larger necessarily).

Cheers,
Nima

[Matt]

He either has A:diamonds:J:diamonds: or K:diamonds:Q:diamonds:. K:diamonds:Q:diamonds: is more likely. An aggressive player will usually three-bet preflop with A:diamonds:J:diamonds: (I would reraise with both of these hands). Pocket fours is a possibility. Cold-calling with small pocket pairs is usually wrong, but it's correct in this situation; the pot is large, two players have already called the raise, and it's safe to assume that the limper will also call. However, we can probably rule out pocket fours; he would most likely have capped the flop with a set. In the actual hand, the player held K:diamonds:J:diamonds: and caught his flush on the river. Bummer.

[bernie82]

I consider myself a tight agressive player and I would usually call a raise before the flop with 5 limpers in front of me and me holding suited connectors, A,x(s) or two suited face cards.
With two raisers in front of me after the flop I would have capped it. Since he didn't I would rule out any nut flush draw and put him on a diamond draw.
Capping in that spot has to be correct with that kind of action and it might get me a free card on the turn.

[Nima]

Capping can be sometimes correct which such actions, if you can show a good amount of restraint post flop....

For example if you played TJ suited capped preflop, and the flop comes, J27, and there is too much action you should be able to fold easily