Hand quiz # 7 (Preflop All In)

[Nima]

You are playing a NL Holdem Cash game.

A Loose player (plays 25% of his hands) raises all in preflop. There is $600 in the pot and it is $500 to you to call.

Which range of cards would you call with if you are last to act and it is only you and him?

[Nima]

Based on the No Limit Holdem book by Sklansky, you should call with AA-44 & AK & KQ


I will post another reply on why that is.

[zakpak23]

I will post another reply on why that is.

Well? I'm curious as to why calling with almost any pocket pair or AK, KQ would be a smart risk.

[Nima]

you are calling $500 to win $600. So you are getting 6 to 5 on your money.

The book only has a chart and no detail explanation. So following is what I believe myself:

First of all, I would personally call AA-88 , AK, KQ (suited).


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You are getting 6 to 5 for your money. So for every 1 time that you win you can afford to lose 1.2 times. That means you need to win a little less than 45% of the time in order to break even.

You should be calling if you think you are going to win more than 45% of the time.

The other play is a lose players (playing 25% of his cards). Now we'd have to find out whether the range of hands mentioned in the book will win 45% of the time against average of the top 25% poker hands.

I don't know whether it will or not. But I assume that's how it should be analyzed.

Cheers,
Nima

[PyroWar]

5-6 offsuit only, fold the rest. Trust me.

[csloce]

Two live cards only pair up on the flop 45% of the time. Just because someone is loose and plays 25% of the hands preflop doesn't mean they're crazy. If they are all in then you have to give them credit for having a top 8 hand. That means AA-88 plus AK. So, if I have AK or KQ then I only have 2 K's to draw, which means I am now about 38% to pair the board.

The charts in these books don't account for chip count. I would lean to being cautious. My philosophy is to push the action. I would rather give away the hand if I have 1010 or less and save those chips to make a raise later.

[Mr.Fivestring]

From my experience an allin preflop, with no previous action before him, from an average player(not a maniac) with a good size stack usually always means QQ or better. In a cash game I would only be calling usually with KK/AA, otherwise wait for a better spot.