Top Two, value raise river?

[notcalebsheridan]

Button ($11.85)
SB ($32.60)
BB ($42.85)
UTG ($78.95)
Hero ($60.60)
CO ($92.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50, UTG calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.25) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $2.5, BB calls $2.50, UTG calls $2.50.

Turn: ($13.75) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $2, Hero raises to $10, BB folds, UTG calls $8.

River: ($33.75) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero ...

This is UTG's first hand at the table. This seems like way too obvious of a blocking bet or maybe it's his version of a value bet. Is it worth raising here? Is AK worth raising here? AT? (where kicker doesn't play)

[notcalebsheridan]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($64.95)
Button ($56.05)
SB ($73.40)
BB ($115.35)
UTG ($46.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50, UTG calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.25) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $4, BB folds, UTG calls $4.

Turn: ($14.25) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $7.5, UTG calls $7.50.

River: ($29.25) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $10, Hero ...

[Nima]

I would say it really depends on the player. He cold called preflop and then called your raise. So he doesnt hae QQ or TT. Also, it seems shorthanded, so he would have raised with 88 as well.

He doesnt have 44 otherwise he would have folded on the flop.

The only hand I would be concerned with here would be 9J. which is very likely giving his pattern of playing - i guess slow playing here.

He bets one third of the pot on the river. You have to call $10 to win $40. So you only need to have more than 25% doubt that he has J9 to call.


I would call here, but Im not sure if that's the correct play.


What really happened here? Did you call?

Cheers,
Nima

[Matt]

Caleb,

Are you against the same opponent? If so, have you picked up any information about his playing style? I suspect he's bluffing in at least one of these hands.

-Matt

[notcalebsheridan]

I'm not asking for fold/call

I'm asking if i just call or raise.

River bets are very strange at low limits like this. My "normal" limits are 1/2 up to 10/20 depending on table selection. Right now I am playing .25/.50 after a 20 buy-in downswing. I wanted to take a month break, but i decided to play low limits to regain confidence in the mean time. I have bankroll to withstand that downswing, but it's more than the bankroll, it's so mental for me

Some stuff i've noticed about the river bets here are that, very few of them are blcoking bets. generally they are poorly done value bets or bluffs. In hand #2 i thought J9 or a set of 8's as he called me down. This guy rarely raised pf. so i had no idea on the actual strength of his hand. In hand #1, i thought AT or lower, thinking kicker wouldn't play.

I just called both hands, they were both bluffs, QT and KJ respectively. After reviewing the hands again, I think i should have raised hand #1 and hand #2's call is ok.

[Matt]

I think just calling is the best move in both situations. If he's bluffing, you gain very little by raising since he will probably fold (or possibly reraise which will present you with another tough decision). If he has you beat, you'll just lose more money. I think raising in these situations, especially #2, is a -EV move.