Hand Quiz #3, Final Question

[Matt]

You are in middle position with a pair of Jacks. An early player raises. Everyone folds to you. You reraise. Everyone folds to the original raiser who makes it four bets. You call. The flop comes 9 :hearts: 2 :spades: 7 :clubs:. The early player bets. You call. The turn is the 3 :diamonds:. Your opponent bets. You raise and your opponent three-bets. You call. The river is the A :hearts:. Your opponent checks. The pot contains 11.5 big bets. What is your move?

[Matt]

First of all, raising the turn was a bad play (see Quiz #3, Question #2). You probably should have folded when he three-bet, which suggests a strong hand.

You should check the river. The Ace seems to have scared your opponent, although he could be trying to induce a bluff or go for a check-raise. It's more likely that he has a pair of Kings or Queens.

You are getting good odds for a bluff (11.5-1); this means that, in order for a bluff to be profitable, it would have to succeed a little more than 9% of the time. However, your opponent would be getting even better odds to pick off a bluff (12.5-1). It is generally better to bluff at small pots rather than large ones. He is going to call with pocket Kings or Queens.

Your best option is to check and hope that he has been bluffing with some absurd hand.

[Nima]

I agree.