AA in position

[notcalebsheridan]

SB ($61)
BB ($51.95)
UTG ($18.85)
MP ($78.95)
Hero ($104.75)
Button ($16.20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Ad, Ac.
1 fold, MP raises to $2, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, MP calls $5.

Flop: ($14.75) Jc, Jh, 5h (2 players)
MP bets $9, Hero ...

notes: I have been brutal on MP player. He is actually pretty good, a little too loose passive, running about 30/17 and not making any moves.

About 2/3 of the time he has opened, i have raised it up. We've seen a few showdowns and he's shown suited connectors through ace king. I have shown suited gappers through middle pairs (JJ). So now i'm expecting to get paid -until the flop. What's my move here?

[Nima]

Caleb,

Which one are you ? The button?

Nima

[notcalebsheridan]

cutoff, right before the button

[Matt]

Caleb,

When you say he's "running about 30/17," are you referring to his pre-flop stats--flops seen and raises, respectively? If so, that seems like a pretty aggressive pre-flop strategy, although I'm judging from my experience in full limit hold'em ring games. Does he become more passive after the flop? I don't really know what advice to give, as I'm not that experienced in shorthanded NL play. I'm just curious about his betting patterns. Is he likely to semi-bluff on a draw or is his play completely transparent?

By the way, thanks for posting. I'm in the process of learning NL, so I like to know how more experienced players think. Also, we appreciate any kind of participation in the forums.

-Matt

[notcalebsheridan]

yeah, 30% VPIP and 17% PFR

those stats are standard at 6-max for mediocre players. He plays fairly well post-flop, i have no idea what he holds here. His preflop raise range is very wide here, as he is a LAG. I'd say suited gaps to AQ+ but not middle of the road hands like JTo/QJo

I think i'm looking at a slightly ahead/way behind situation. I havn't seen him bet his draws like this before, but that's not saying he can't be now. I also havn't seen him make a bluff like this before. That said, at best i think i'm facing a flush draw (~65% favorite) and worst, AJ (90% dog). So i have no idea what my action should be here.

Another note: today i got in another tangle with him with AA in position. He held QQ and did NOT bet out on a 9xx flop, J turn, or 2 river. I ended up getting my money in, expecting to see 89.

[Matt]

Before you act you need to consider the hands your opponent would raise before the flop and then bet on that dangerous board. A-J is a possibility; there are four possible combinations for that hand, since two aces and two jacks are accounted for. Other possibilities include K-J (eight possible combinations); Q-Js and J-Ts (two possible combinations each); 5-5 (three possible combinations); and J-J (one possible combination). Those are twenty possible hands that would have you badly beaten. He would probably slowplay 5-5 or J-J, so those are less likely. You are still in danger though. Depending on just how passive he is, he may also have a hand like pocket nines. K-K and Q-Q are also possibilities, but he would probably re-raise with those hands.

I also have no idea what the right move is. You could call and see what happens on the turn. You might also make a small raise to help you better define your hand. I would lean towards raising and folding if he moves in. This is a tough situation.

[Matt]

I'm curious about the result of this hand. What happened?

[notcalebsheridan]

Before you act you need to consider the hands your opponent would raise before the flop and then bet on that dangerous board. A-J is a possibility; there are four possible combinations for that hand, since two aces and two jacks are accounted for. Other possibilities include K-J (eight possible combinations); Q-Js and J-Ts (two possible combinations each); 5-5 (three possible combinations); and J-J (one possible combination). Those are twenty possible hands that would have you badly beaten. He would probably slowplay 5-5 or J-J, so those are less likely. You are still in danger though. Depending on just how passive he is, he may also have a hand like pocket nines. K-K and Q-Q are also possibilities, but he would probably re-raise with those hands.

I also have no idea what the right move is. You could call and see what happens on the turn. You might also make a small raise to help you better define your hand. I would lean towards raising and folding if he moves in. This is a tough situation.

counting the hands like that only applies if you can put villain on, say 5 hands.. for instance, you think his range is AA, KK, QQ, AK. If there are 10 combinations, and you beat 6, you call. It's impossible to do it in this case with villain's wide range

As for results, I just folded. I was killing him in every other hand we played, so i saw no reason why i shouldn't just give it up and make it back on the next hand. I think it was DB in SuperSystem that said you need to give in on small hands to weak opponents who show strength for the first or second time. I don't know if it was a great fold or not, but i made that money back the next hand I played... in another 100-200 hands, he hasn't donked into me like that. Maybe he made bottom boat, i can't say

[Matt]

I realize that his preflop raising standards are loose. If you were just going on that information, it would indeed be impossible to narrow down his hands so precisely. However, his bet on the flop gives you a little more information. All of the hands I mentioned are within his range for pre-flop raises. It is true that he will raise with many more hands before the flop. My question is, which hands will he raise before the flop and bet into a board of Jc, Jh, 5h? That narrows the range significantly--for example, you can rule out a hand like As-3s based on the cards you have seen and his bet on the flop. Again, you don't have to guess his hand perfectly, and you certainly don't need to go through all the calculations in the middle of the hand. But, given his past behavior, you can reasonably assume that he either has a hand like 9-9 or K-Js. You are right to be cautious, but there are still plenty of hands you can beat. With all this information in mind, I would make a small raise in order to better define my hand. I would raise to about $20 and fold to a reraise.