Quiz #4, Question 1

[Matt]

You are under the gun in a six-handed game with K:hearts:K:spades:. You raise and a tight-aggressive player to your left three-bets. The loose-aggressive cutoff caps. Only you and the three-bettor call. The flop comes K:diamonds: A:clubs: 9:spades:. Everyone checks to the cutoff, who bets. You raise, the player to your left calls, and the cutoff folds. The turn is the J:diamonds:. You bet, your opponent raises, you three-bet, and he caps. What hand is he most likely to hold?

[Nima]

In the other post, I said he most likely has JJ, but I don't think he does. (changed my mind :) )

He wouldn't call a bet and check-raise on the flop with JJ.

Chances of him having AK is slim given that 3 kings and one ace is out. so he might have AA or 99, but one ace is out too, so I would guess 99. but i think its a close call between 99 and AA

[Nima]

oops, I thought I read he is tight aggressive player. Disregard all my of my comments :)

[Matt]

oops, I thought I read he is tight aggressive player. Disregard all my of my comments :)

He is tight-aggressive. The cutoff is loose-aggressive. Sorry if that was unclear.

[Matt]

Alright, it's time for me to weigh in. Obviously, our opponent can hold a hand that I didn't include as an option--e.g., QT or AJ. We can almost certainly rule out QT, suited or unsuited. A tight-aggressive will rarely, if ever, three-bet with this hand before the flop.

His three most likely hands are AA, 99, or AK. JJ and A:diamonds:9:diamonds: are less likely; our opponent would have folded JJ on the flop and, obviously, there is only one possible combination of A:diamonds:9:diamonds:.

There are three combinations for each of his most likely holdings:

AA: A:diamonds:A:hearts:, A:diamonds:A:spades:, A:hearts:A:clubs:
99: 9:diamonds:9:spades:, 9:hearts:9:clubs:, 9:hearts:9:diamonds:
AK: A:spades:K:clubs:, A:hearts:K:clubs:, and A:diamonds:K:clubs:

Therefore, if we only consider the card combinations, the odds are 2-1 that he has a set of nines or a set of aces. Although most opponents will bet more aggressively with a set than with two pair, we can safely assume that our aggressive opponent will cap with any of these hands.

Given all this information, our opponent will have a set of nines or aces well over half the time. AA and 99 are both correct answers.

[TJericho]

You raise and a tight-aggressive player to your left three-bets.

Would a tight aggressive three-bet preflop with a low pocket pair after the UTG position bets? I mean, maybe, but that line leads me to consider AA a stronger possibility than 99.

[peteryo24]

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