I’m staying at the Luxor hotel and casino. I believe they have a $3/$6 limit and a $6/$12 limit. I think I’ll play those a little just to get my room discounted to poker rate. Then I will go to Bellagio for the $15/$30 and $30/$60 game.

I won’t be playing much poker. It is more of a vacation trip, but we all know I will end up playing some.

I want to play the $30/$60 and the $15/$30 Texas Holdem Limit game at Bellagio. I will post pictures and daily updates once I’m there.

• CBS Sports Line: Green Bay to win
• Pick Source 1: Over 43.5
• Pick Source 2: Green Bay Packer -3
• Pick Source 3: Baltimore Ravens +3.5.
• ESPN Pick: Green Bay to win. However ESPN Accuscore says something different but I’m not sure if I can publish that.
• Yahoo Pick: Green Bay to win
• My Pick: Green Bay -3.

Right now the line has changed to -3 for Green Bay showing more betting on Baltimore is taking place. I don’t usually trust Yahoo or ESPN picks but when they are good when you need the extra push.

Both teams have gone over the U/O line for their past game and this game has potential for a good number of big plays so Over seems like a good pick.

Given line has moved in favor of betting on Green Bay and most picks are Green Bay, I would pick a Parlay on Green Bay + Over.

• Mathematical: I am going to run analysis (I have hand coded a program) to analyze the games for the past one year to find any pattern in the games and spread. I am convinced that I can find a pattern in the opening bets. I am mainly trying to find patterns that would cover 3 team teaser bets more than 75% of the time.
• Pick Average: Because I own this website I get free picks from many sports betting pick sites. I also have few friends who are very good at sports betting and get weekly tips from then. I plan to create tables for every game and lay down the picks of everyone along side my own pick and reasoning. I will then choose a few games a week and lay straight, parlay, and teaser bets on them.

I am going to provide my pick average tables for free this entire year. In fact I will keep posting them for free until the beginning of next NFL season.

Some of the websites who send me their picks don’t allow me to make their pick public so I simply use them to make a better selection in my own pick (which will be part of the table).

I play there once every other  week. On Wednesday nights they usually spread a $40/$80 Limit and sometimes a $40/$80 HORSE game. There are some good players in the game however you only need a few bad players in a high limit game to pay everyone else off.

I’ll blog about my next trip there (probably 10 days from now).

Scott started the day with a substantial chip lead, and never faltered on his way to capturing the title.

Many people believed his stiffest competition would come from the two short-stacks: Poker Pro Barney Boatman, and Richard Ashby, AKA CHUFTY, in the online world.

It looked like Boatman was going to make a move early on when he more than doubled his starting stack, but it was not to be, as Boatman was the first player eliminated.

Boatman was soon followed by Ashby, leaving 6 virtually unknown players vying for the title.

Perhaps the hand of the day was when Zach Gruneberg flopped top pair on a J44 board. The problem was that Rajkumar Ramakrishnan flopped quad 4s! Sending Gruneberg out in 6th place.

Sam Capra was the next to go when he moved all in with pocket Tens, and was insta-called by Peter Rho’s pocket Aces.

Rajkumar Ramakrishnan lost with pocket Aces to Peter Rho’s pocket Kings, when Rho spiked a King on the flop.

Elliot Smith finished in 3rd place when his AQ lost to Stewart Scott’s A7, leaving Rho and Scott to play for the title.

In heads up play Scott got the dream scenario, AA, with Rho re-raising all-in with AJ! When the dust settled Stewart Scott was the Aussie Millions winner.

With 64 players making the money, and very long 2 hour levels, you can expect play to slow down quite a bit at the start of day 3 with the bubble looming.

When day 3 does kick off,  it will be two women leading the way, with Patrik Antonius right on their heels:

Annnic Ivert: 555,900
Annette Obrestad: 454,800
Rajkumar Ramakrishnan: 388,200
David Dochtery: 362,000
Stewart Scott: 348,000
Karl Bullock: 347,900
Patrik Antonius: 335,900
Michael Tureniec: 332,000
John Paul Kelly: 321,600
Will Zemljaric: 308,000

Other top pros still in the mix are: The always entertaining Scotty Nguyen, WSOP final table participant Raymond Rahme, internet superstar Steve Sung, and WPT sensation Clonie Gowen.

The payouts for the event are:

PLACE PRIZE

1 $1,381,392

2 $659,196

3 $461,437

4 $263,678

5 $197,759

6 $138,431

7 $98,879

8 – 9 $65,919

10 – 12 $52,736

13 – 18 $42,848

19 – 24 $32,960

25 – 30 $26,368

31 – 36 $19,776

37 – 40 $16,480

41 – 48 $13,184

49 – 64 $9,888

The chip leader is Brent Daphne, with 120,250 chips. Ivan Demidov continues his incredible play, and finds himself currently sitting in 7th place, with 81,925 chips.

The notable rail birds are: Jeffrey Lisandro, 2008 Aussie Millions champion Alexander Kostritsyn, Chris Ferguson, Erik Seidel, Ross Boatman, Jason Gray, and Harry Demetriou.

There are two keys to properly playing big aces:

1 – Playing aggressively to limit the field
2 – Playing aggressively to increase your fold equity on the flop

The key is to play aggressively, these hands are either raise or fold. Calling is simply not an option.

You want a smaller field, and the betting lead, because it’s easier to make a successful continuation bet against 1, at most 2 opponents. Additionally, with a smaller field it becomes less likely someone will run you down when you make a hand.

Remember, big aces are raise or fold! If you are limping in, or worse calling a raise with these hands you need to rethink the strengths and weaknesses of big aces.